AI-Powered Net Worth Forecasting: See Where You're Headed

Clarity already tracks your net worth over time and shows you where you've been. Now it can show you where you're headed. Using Google's TimesFM 2.5 foundation model, Clarity forecasts your net worth 30, 60, and 90 days into the future — with uncertainty bands that show the range of likely outcomes, not just a single optimistic line.

Why Forecasting Net Worth Matters

A historical net worth chart tells you what happened. That's useful for reflection, but it doesn't help you plan. You can see that your net worth grew $8,000 over the last 3 months, but will the next 3 months look the same? Are you accelerating, decelerating, or plateauing?

Most people estimate their future net worth with back-of-napkin math: "I save about $2,000 a month, so in 3 months I'll be up $6,000." That ignores investment returns, market fluctuations, irregular expenses, bonus income, and the fact that some months you save $3,000 and others you save $800.

A time-series forecast takes your actual net worth trajectory — with all its variability — and projects it forward using the patterns it finds. It accounts for the fact that your net worth doesn't grow in a straight line.

How the Forecast Works

Clarity stores a daily snapshot of your total net worth (assets minus liabilities) in the snapshots table. Each snapshot captures your total account balances, investment values, and debt balances as of that day.

When you view the net worth forecast, Clarity feeds your snapshot history into TimesFM 2.5, Google's pre-trained time-series foundation model. TimesFM analyzes the sequence of daily net worth values and produces predictions for the next 30, 60, or 90 days at multiple quantile levels.

The model receives only the numerical time series — a sequence of daily values like [$142,300, $142,850, $141,900, $143,200, ...]. It doesn't know that $142,300 is composed of a $180,000 house, $45,000 in a 401(k), $12,000 in checking, minus $94,700 in mortgage. It operates purely on the aggregate trajectory.

What the Model Captures

Net worth time series have different characteristics than spending data. TimesFM adapts to these characteristics:

• Growth trends. If your net worth has been growing at roughly $1,500/month over the past 6 months, the model projects that trend forward. But it also detects if the rate of growth is accelerating (compounding investment returns) or decelerating (rising expenses eating into savings).
• Market-driven volatility. If you hold investments, your net worth fluctuates with the market. TimesFM sees this volatility in your history and widens the confidence bands accordingly. Someone with 80% of their net worth in index funds will get wider forecast bands than someone with 80% in savings accounts.
• Pay-cycle sawtooth. Many people see a sawtooth pattern in their net worth: it jumps up on payday and declines between paychecks as they spend. The model recognizes this periodicity and doesn't mistake a mid-cycle dip for a trend reversal.
• Monthly bill effects. Net worth might drop $2,500 on the 1st of every month when rent or mortgage clears. The model learns this monthly pattern and factors it into the forecast rather than treating it as an unexpected decline.
• Level shifts. If you received a bonus, paid off a debt, or made a large purchase, your net worth shifts to a new level. TimesFM recognizes level shifts and projects from the new baseline, not the old one.

Reading the Forecast on the Net Worth Chart

The net worth chart on the Clarity dashboard shows your historical trajectory as a solid line. The forecast extends from today as a dashed line with a shaded band around it:

• Center line (p50): The model's median prediction. Example: your net worth will be approximately $148,500 in 30 days.
• Inner band (p25-p75): A 50% probability range. Example: $146,000 - $151,000.
• Outer band (p10-p90): An 80% probability range. Example: $143,500 - $153,500.

The bands are narrower near today and widen as the forecast extends further out. This is a natural property of time-series forecasting: near-term predictions are more certain than far-term ones. A 30-day forecast might have a $7,000 range. A 90-day forecast might have a $20,000 range.

Example: What a Forecast Looks Like

Say your current net worth is $145,000. You've been growing at roughly $2,000/month over the past 6 months, but with $3,000-$5,000 of monthly volatility from investment fluctuations.

The 90-day forecast might show:

• 30 days: $147,000 (range: $144,500 - $149,500)
• 60 days: $149,000 (range: $145,000 - $153,000)
• 90 days: $151,000 (range: $144,500 - $157,500)

Notice the range widens over time. At 30 days, the model is fairly confident (plus or minus $2,500). At 90 days, there's more uncertainty (plus or minus $6,500) because three months of market movements and spending variations compound.

Why This Is Better Than a Savings Rate Projection

The simplest alternative is: "I save $2,000/month, so I'll be at $151,000 in 3 months." That's actually pretty close to the p50 forecast in our example. So why bother with a model?

• The range matters. Knowing the answer is "somewhere between $144,500 and $157,500" is different from assuming exactly $151,000. If you're saving toward a $150,000 down payment, the forecast tells you there's meaningful risk you won't hit it in 90 days.
• Savings rates vary. You don't actually save exactly $2,000 every month. Some months it's $3,200, others it's $800. The model incorporates this variability instead of assuming a constant rate.
• Investment returns aren't linear. If 40% of your net worth is in investments, a flat savings projection ignores the largest driver of monthly variance. The model captures the historical volatility of your total net worth, including investment fluctuations.
• Trend changes get detected. If your savings rate has been declining over the past 3 months (maybe expenses are creeping up), the model detects that deceleration. A fixed savings rate projection would miss it entirely.

Forecast Horizons: 30, 60, 90 Days

Clarity offers three forecast windows, each useful for different decisions:

• 30-day forecast: High confidence, tight bands. Useful for near-term planning: "Can I afford this purchase next month?" or "Will my emergency fund hit $10,000 by month end?"
• 60-day forecast: Moderate confidence. Good for medium-term goals: "Am I on track for my savings target?" or "Should I adjust my investment contributions?"
• 90-day forecast: Wider bands, but still useful for directional planning: "At this trajectory, when will I reach $200,000?" The bands show the range of plausible timelines.

Data Requirements

The forecast requires at least 60 days of net worth snapshot history. Clarity captures snapshots automatically each day you have connected accounts, so most users accumulate enough data within their first two months.

Forecast quality improves with more history. With 6+ months of data, the model can distinguish seasonal patterns (higher spending in December, tax refunds in spring) from random noise. With only 2 months, it relies more heavily on short-term trend and weekly periodicity.

What It Doesn't Predict

TimesFM forecasts based on historical patterns. It cannot predict:

• Market crashes or rallies that haven't started yet
• A job loss or promotion you haven't received yet
• One-time windfalls (inheritance, gifts, bonuses) that aren't periodic
• Major life changes (moving, having a child, retiring)

The confidence bands partially account for these possibilities — wider bands mean more things could happen. But truly unprecedented events fall outside what any time-series model can forecast. The model is best understood as answering: "If the patterns of the last few months continue, where will I be?" That's a useful baseline, even when you know something might change.