Track Prediction Markets in 2026

Prediction markets exploded in 2024 with the US election. Now in 2026, they've become a legitimate asset class — with billions in monthly volume across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless. But tracking positions across three exchanges with completely different interfaces, currencies, and settlement mechanisms? That's a mess. Here's the complete guide.

The Rise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets let you trade on real-world outcomes. Will the Fed cut rates in March? Will SpaceX launch Starship successfully? Will Bitcoin hit $200K by December? Instead of speculating on Twitter, you put money behind your beliefs — and earn if you're right.

The concept isn't new — the Iowa Electronic Markets have run since 1988. But 2024 was the breakout year. Polymarket processed over $3.5 billion in election-related trades alone — and its predictions were more accurate than polls, pundits, and statistical models like FiveThirtyEight. The media noticed. Regulators took note. And millions of new users signed up.

Since then, prediction markets have expanded far beyond elections:

Economics: Fed rate decisions (most popular category by volume), inflation data (CPI, PCE), GDP forecasts, unemployment rate, Treasury yields
Crypto: Bitcoin price targets, Ethereum ETF decisions, token launches, regulatory actions, exchange solvency
Tech: Product launches (Apple, Tesla, OpenAI), M&A (will X acquire Y?), AI milestones (GPT-5 release date), app store metrics
Sports: Game outcomes, championship winners, player stats, transfer rumors, draft picks
Politics: Elections worldwide, legislation passage, supreme court decisions, international relations
Science: Clinical trial results, space launches, climate data, Nobel Prize winners, pandemic metrics
Culture: Box office numbers, award show winners, social media milestones, celebrity events

How Prediction Markets Work

If you're new to prediction markets, here's the mechanics:

Binary Markets

Most prediction markets are binary: Yes or No. "Will the Fed cut rates in March?" trades at a price between $0 and $1. If you buy "Yes" at $0.72, you're paying 72 cents for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens. Your potential profit is 28 cents (39% return). If it doesn't happen, you lose your 72 cents.

The market price = the crowd's implied probability. A "Yes" contract at $0.72 means the market thinks there's a 72% chance the event happens.

Multi-Outcome Markets

Some markets have multiple outcomes: "Who will win the 2028 election?" might have 10+ candidates, each with their own price. The prices of all outcomes should sum to $1. If they don't, there's an arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution

When the event occurs (or the deadline passes), the market resolves. Winning contracts pay $1. Losing contracts pay $0. Settlement is automatic on all major platforms.

The Three Major Prediction Exchanges: Deep Dive

Polymarket

The largest prediction market by volume. Built on Polygon (Ethereum L2), it offers crypto-native trading with USDC settlement. Polymarket has the deepest liquidity and widest selection of markets.

Strengths: Deep liquidity (often $1M+ per market), broadest market selection (1,000+ active markets), fast settlement, no KYC for small amounts, excellent mobile app
Settlement: USDC on Polygon. You need USDC in a Polygon wallet to trade. Deposits via Coinbase, MoonPay, or bridging.
Fees: No trading fees on most markets. Polymarket makes money from the bid-ask spread and market making.
Regulatory status: Not available to US residents for real-money trading (operates under a CFTC no-action letter for certain markets). Available globally elsewhere.
Best for: Crypto-native traders, high-volume markets, global users

Kalshi

The first CFTC-regulated prediction exchange in the US. Kalshi trades in USD with standard brokerage-style accounts. After winning a landmark court case against the CFTC in 2024, Kalshi can now offer election markets and has expanded aggressively.

Strengths: CFTC-regulated (legal certainty for US traders), USD-denominated (no crypto needed), 1099 tax reporting, bank account funding, clean institutional UI
Settlement: USD via bank transfer or debit card. Standard brokerage experience.
Fees: Exchange fees on trades (typically 1-2 cents per contract). Transparent fee schedule.
Regulatory status: Fully regulated as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) by the CFTC. 1099 forms issued for tax reporting.
Best for: US-based traders, regulatory comfort, traditional finance users, tax-conscious investors

Limitless

The newest major entrant. Limitless focuses on crypto-native markets with innovative mechanics — multi-outcome markets, conditional markets, and longer time horizons that other platforms don't support.

Strengths: Innovative market types (conditional markets like "IF Biden is the nominee, will he win?"), niche coverage, growing community, lower minimums
Settlement: Crypto-native. Multiple token options depending on the market.
Fees: Low trading fees, competitive with Polymarket
Best for: Niche markets, crypto-native users, conditional markets, early adopters

Polymarket vs. Kalshi: Head-to-Head

Since these are the two dominant exchanges, here's a detailed comparison:

Liquidity: Polymarket wins for major markets (election, crypto, Fed decisions). Kalshi is growing but still has thinner order books on most markets.
Market selection: Polymarket has more markets overall. Kalshi focuses on higher-quality, better-defined markets with clear resolution criteria.
US access: Kalshi wins definitively — it's the only regulated option for US traders. Polymarket restricts US IP addresses.
Tax reporting: Kalshi issues 1099 forms. Polymarket leaves tax tracking to you (and your crypto tax software).
Onboarding: Kalshi: sign up, deposit USD, trade. Polymarket: get USDC, bridge to Polygon, deposit, trade. Kalshi is simpler.
Speed: Both settle trades instantly. Polymarket uses blockchain confirmation (seconds on Polygon). Kalshi uses traditional clearing.

The Tracking Problem

If you trade on multiple exchanges — and serious prediction market participants do, because different platforms have different markets and different odds — you're dealing with:

Three separate dashboards with completely different UIs and terminology
Three different account balances in different currencies (USDC, USD, crypto)
No unified P&L across exchanges
No way to compare odds on the same event across platforms (arbitrage opportunities exist)
No integration with your broader investment portfolio
No way to see prediction market exposure as a % of your total net worth

You might have $500 on Polymarket betting on Fed rate cuts, $300 on Kalshi on the same event, and $200 on Limitless on a related market. Your total prediction market exposure? You'd need a spreadsheet to figure it out.

Prediction Market Strategies

Understanding common strategies helps you evaluate what to track:

1. Information Edge

The most straightforward strategy. If you're a subject matter expert — in politics, science, tech, or any domain — prediction markets let you monetize your knowledge. The market might price "SpaceX Starship orbital success" at 40%, but if you follow SpaceX closely, attend launches, and understand the engineering, you might estimate 80%. That's a profitable trade.

2. Cross-Platform Arbitrage

The same event often trades at different prices on Polymarket and Kalshi. If "Fed cuts in March" is 72% on Polymarket and 68% on Kalshi, you can buy "Yes" on Kalshi and sell "Yes" on Polymarket (or buy "No" on Polymarket) for a risk-free spread. This requires tracking prices across platforms simultaneously.

3. Correlated Market Pairs

Some markets are correlated. If "Fed cuts rates" is at 72% and "S&P 500 hits new all-time high by March" is at 50%, and you believe a rate cut would push the S&P higher, you might buy both — the second market might be underpriced given the first.

4. Portfolio Hedging

Prediction markets can hedge other positions. If you're long crypto and worried about regulation, buy "No" on "Bitcoin ETF approved" or "Yes" on "SEC bans crypto staking." If regulation hits and your crypto drops, your prediction market positions pay out.

5. Calendar Trading

Buy positions well before resolution when prices are uncertain, then sell as the event approaches and information crystallizes. Early buyers get the best prices but take the most risk.

How Clarity Tracks Prediction Markets

Clarity's Markets tab includes a dedicated Predictions section that aggregates data from all three major exchanges:

Cross-Exchange Market View

See the top 100 prediction markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless — all in one feed. Each market shows:

Current price/probability (e.g., "Fed cuts rates in March: 72%")
Volume and liquidity — so you know if there's enough depth to trade
Which exchange the market is on (color-coded badges: purple for Polymarket, blue for Kalshi, amber for Limitless)
End date and resolution criteria
Price history / probability chart

Search Across Exchanges

Looking for a specific market? Search once and see results from all three exchanges. If the same event is tradeable on multiple platforms, you can compare odds side by side and find the best price — or spot arbitrage opportunities.

Watchlist Integration

Add prediction markets to your watchlist alongside stocks, crypto, and forex. Track everything you care about in one place — AAPL earnings, BTC price targets, EUR/USD, and "Will the US enter a recession?" all in the same list.

This is uniquely powerful. No other tool lets you track stocks, crypto, forex, and prediction markets in a single unified watchlist.

Prediction Markets as an Asset Class

Here's what most people miss: prediction markets aren't just gambling. They're a distinct asset class with unique characteristics that make them valuable in a diversified portfolio:

Defined Outcomes & Known Risk

Unlike stocks or crypto, prediction markets have binary outcomes with a known maximum loss. You buy a "Yes" contract at $0.72 — your maximum loss is $0.72 and your maximum gain is $0.28. No surprise earnings misses that drop a stock 40%. No liquidation cascades. Your risk is defined at entry.

Uncorrelated Returns

A bet on "Will it snow in Miami by March?" has zero correlation with the stock market, crypto, or interest rates. A bet on "Will a specific drug get FDA approval?" is uncorrelated with everything except that company's stock.

Adding uncorrelated return streams to a portfolio improves risk-adjusted returns (higher Sharpe ratio). This is basic portfolio theory — and prediction markets offer some of the most uncorrelated returns available.

Positive Expected Value Opportunities

Prediction markets are less efficient than stock markets. Fewer participants, less institutional money, more behavioral biases. This creates persistent mispricings — especially in:

Niche markets with few participants
Markets where the crowd has political or emotional bias
Markets requiring domain expertise the average trader doesn't have
Long-dated markets where capital is tied up for months

Short Duration

Most prediction markets resolve in days to months. This means faster capital recycling than stocks (which you might hold for years). A $1,000 allocation to prediction markets might generate 10-20 resolved trades per month, each with independent outcomes.

Tax Treatment of Prediction Markets

Taxes depend on which platform you use:

Kalshi: Regulated as event contracts. Kalshi issues 1099 forms. Gains are typically treated as short-term capital gains (ordinary income rates). Clear, straightforward reporting.
Polymarket: Crypto-settled. Treated similarly to other crypto gains/losses. You're responsible for tracking cost basis on USDC deposits and contract purchases. More complex, but Clarity's cost basis tracking helps.
Limitless: Similar to Polymarket — crypto-native, self-reported.

Important: The tax treatment of prediction markets is still evolving. The IRS hasn't issued specific guidance for event contracts on crypto-native platforms. Consult a tax advisor for your specific situation.

The Broader Portfolio View

This is where Clarity really shines. Your prediction market activity doesn't exist in isolation — it's part of your total portfolio. Clarity shows:

Bank accounts — checking, savings, credit cards
Stocks & ETFs — across all brokerages via Plaid
Crypto — exchanges + wallets + DeFi
Prediction markets — Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless in the Markets tab

One net worth number. One allocation view. You can see that you have 5% of your portfolio in prediction markets and decide if that's too much, too little, or just right.

Getting Started

Sign up for Clarity (free 14-day trial, no credit card)
Go to the Markets tab → Predictions section
Browse top markets across all three exchanges — sorted by volume, end date, or category
Search for specific events — "Fed rate cut," "Bitcoin 200K," "Super Bowl"
Add to your watchlist — track prediction markets alongside stocks, crypto, and forex
Connect your accounts — banks, brokerages, exchanges — to see predictions in the context of your total portfolio

Whether you're a seasoned prediction market trader or just discovering this new asset class, Clarity gives you one place to track it all — alongside every other asset you own.

The future of finance is probabilistic. Prediction markets are just the beginning.